Reliability assessment of mixed hydro thermal systems using sequential simulation

Evaluation of the required amount of generation capacity to ensure adequacy of supply is an important factor during both the planning and the operation stages of a power system. There are two basic reliability evaluation methods; the analytical approach; and the stochastic simulation approach. Simulation techniques can be divided into two; random and sequential. The sequential approach is particularly justified when the system states at any given point in time are partially determined by the historical evolution of the system. The authors describe the application of simulation techniques to the reliability evaluation of hydro-thermal generation systems. They include a review of the models and the techniques. Analyses of two systems are discussed; the first is the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), and the second is based on a real Spanish hydro system. The effects of using different operation and management policies are described.