Global drivers of inflation: The role of supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks
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The determinants of inflation rates have been extensively studied with no clear consensus. Recent research
highlights the growing influence of global supply factors, notably supply chain disruptions and commodity
price shocks. This paper analyzes the changing impact of these global supply chain disruptions and commodity
price shocks, compared to demand shocks, on inflation rates in Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. from
1998 to 2022. The findings reveal that since the mid-2010s, supply shocks have become the predominant
drivers of inflation. After the Global Financial Crisis, commodity price shocks significantly affected inflation
in Germany, the U.K., and the U.S., while the influence of global supply chain disruptions on inflation in all
four countries surged following the COVID-19 pandemic.
