Profitability analysis of Spanish CCGTs under future scenarios of high RES and EV penetration

Among conventional generation technologies in Spain, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) is the one that has experienced the largest development over the first decade of the 21st century. However, despite its promising future, multiple factors (such as the renewable generation increase, demand decline, adverse regulatory policies, etc.) have compromised their competitive position, reducing their capacity factor and undermining their financial viability. Because of those issues, electricity companies are giving up on new CCGTs investments, or even considering closing or mothballing some of their recently built plants. However, many still claim for the necessity of maintaining flexible backup technologies to cope with the variability of renewable energies, as a transition technology until energy storage or other future technologies emerge. This paper makes a profitability analysis of CCGTs in the Spanish electric power sector under different scenarios of RES penetration, carbon plants decommissioning, CO2 emission costs and EV penetration.